Tennis vs Padel in 2026: What the Data Shows

New to tennis or padel in Prague? See our complete guide to tennis in Prague for courts, clubs, coaching options, costs, and the padel scene in 2026.

Introduction

Padel has arrived in Prague. Between 2022 and 2025, the number of padel courts in the Czech Republic grew from approximately 40 to over 220 - a 450% increase. Across Central Europe, participation nearly quadrupled. Tennis, by contrast, saw modest absolute decline in recreational player numbers while competitive enrolment held broadly flat.

This report examines what that shift actually means: for players choosing a sport, for club operators deciding where to invest, and for coaches trying to understand whether the market is structurally changing or experiencing a cycle. The short answer: both things are true, but in different layers of the market.

"Padel is not replacing tennis. It is colonising a segment of the recreational market that was never fully served by tennis's learning curve."

Section 1 - Participation Data

Tennis: Steady at the top, leaking at the bottom

Czech Tennis Federation data shows registered players declining from approximately 94,000 in 2022 to 90,500 in 2025 - a 3.7% contraction. Competitive registrations (players entering at least one sanctioned tournament annually) fell by only 1.2%, suggesting the attrition is concentrated in casual and beginner segments.

Notably, the number of players completing structured junior academy programmes in Prague rose slightly in 2025, driven by continued demand from parents seeking high-performance development environments. The casual adult beginner, however, is increasingly choosing padel.

Padel: Explosive growth from a low base

Padel participation in Czechia is estimated at 85,000 active players in 2025, up from under 20,000 in 2022. This growth is almost entirely recreational - the competitive circuit remains embryonic. Two-thirds of padel players surveyed in a 2025 Prague club study reported playing tennis previously or concurrently, confirming that padel is primarily attracting from the broader racket sports audience, not from unrelated sports.

Section 2 - Economics

The economic case for padel from a venue operator's perspective is compelling. A standard padel court (10m × 20m enclosed structure) requires roughly 200m² including buffer space. A regulation tennis court requires 340m². Construction cost per padel court in the Czech market runs approximately 1.2-1.6M CZK; an indoor tennis court runs 2.8-4.5M CZK. Operating costs are also lower: padel courts require no line maintenance, less resurfacing frequency, and simpler lighting configurations.

Per-player court cost at peak times is broadly comparable once the 4-player padel configuration is factored in. However, padel courts generate higher gross revenue per hour and achieve higher utilisation rates, making the ROI case for new padel investment significantly more attractive for venue operators.

"We added three padel courts on space that was sitting empty as overflow parking. They were profitable within six months. The tennis courts that were already there - those took eight years."

Section 3 - Coaching Market Implications

For coaches, the picture is more nuanced. Padel coaching demand is growing rapidly, but rate compression is significant - average padel lesson rates in Prague are 18-22% below equivalent tennis lesson rates. This reflects the abundance of padel coaches relative to ATP-pedigreed tennis instructors, and the lower perceived technical ceiling of padel instruction.

High-performance tennis coaching remains scarce and premium. The pool of coaches with professional playing credentials and structured methodology is small. As recreational tennis contracts, competition for serious development-oriented players intensifies - but so does the premium those players are willing to pay for genuinely elite instruction.

Section 4 - 2028 Projection

Based on current growth trajectories and structural factors - court supply, federation investment, competitive infrastructure, and player retention data - the following projection is offered for the Prague and Central European market through 2028.

Tennis and padel will reach approximate parity in total active player count in the Czech market by late 2027 or early 2028. Tennis will retain structural dominance in competitive play, junior development pipelines, and coaching premium. Padel will dominate in new recreational entrant acquisition, venue investment returns, and media/sponsorship growth rates.

The framing of "tennis vs padel" is ultimately a false binary. The data suggest these are complementary markets serving different player needs and motivations - with significant overlap in the player base. Coaches and clubs that treat them as competing priorities are likely making a strategic error.